Northern Colorado

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	110.0
Current RPI:	110
Expected SOS:	181
Current SOS:	181
Current Record:	19-12
Expected Record:	19-12
Current Conf Record:	13-8
Expected Conf Record:	13-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-2
Current OOC Record:	6-4
Expected OOC Record:	6-4
Expected OOC RPI:	100
Expected OOC SOS:	158

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-12	110.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Colorado (82.0)	P12	A	66-51	L	0%
11-13	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	H	59-74	L	0%
11-17	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	A	82-84	W	100%
11-24	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	N	67-80	W	100%
11-25	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	N	62-63	W	100%
11-26	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	N	77-63	W	100%
11-29	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	A	56-51	L	0%
12-13	Denver (224.0)	Sum	H	83-63	W	100%
12-19	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	A	84-91	W	100%
12-22	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	A	94-91	L	0%
12-29	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	H	88-75	W	100%
12-31	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	H	81-77	W	100%
1-4	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	A	76-64	L	0%
1-6	Montana (76.0)	BSky	A	89-80	L	0%
1-11	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	H	74-78	L	0%
1-13	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	H	94-80	W	100%
1-20	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	H	94-91	W	100%
1-25	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	A	63-80	W	100%
1-27	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	A	67-65	L	0%
2-1	Montana (76.0)	BSky	H	79-88	L	0%
2-3	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	H	86-63	W	100%
2-8	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	A	82-85	W	100%
2-10	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	A	71-66	L	0%
2-15	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	H	95-60	W	100%
2-17	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	H	97-80	W	100%
2-24	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	A	66-79	W	100%
3-1	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	A	78-85	W	100%
3-3	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	A	88-77	L	0%
3-6	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	N	82-59	W	100%
3-8	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	N	55-80	W	100%
3-9	Montana (76.0)	BSky	N	91-89	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Colorado's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Northern Colorado's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Northern Colorado.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Northern Colorado	BSky	26.54	26.54	64.54	64.54	7.72	7.72
Montana	BSky	5.68	5.68	75.00	75.00	2.84	2.84
Weber St.	BSky	5.59	5.59	60.00	60.00	1.12	1.12
North Dakota	BSky	4.26	4.26	35.71	35.71	-1.22	-1.22
Eastern Washington	BSky	4.20	4.20	56.67	56.67	0.56	0.56
Northern Arizona	BSky	4.18	4.18	14.29	14.29	-2.98	-2.98
Montana St.	BSky	4.09	4.09	35.71	35.71	-1.17	-1.17
Idaho St.	BSky	4.07	4.07	46.15	46.15	-0.31	-0.31
Idaho	BSky	4.01	4.01	74.07	74.07	1.93	1.93
UC Davis	BW	3.25	3.25	64.29	64.29	0.93	0.93
Southern Utah	BSky	2.81	2.81	37.93	37.93	-0.68	-0.68
Sacramento St.	BSky	2.65	2.65	13.79	13.79	-1.92	-1.92
Portland St.	BSky	2.64	2.64	58.62	58.62	0.46	0.46
South Dakota	Sum	1.86	1.86	75.86	75.86	0.96	0.96
Denver	Sum	1.80	1.80	48.15	48.15	-0.07	-0.07
Pepperdine	WCC	1.73	1.73	16.67	16.67	-1.15	-1.15
Youngstown St.	Horz	1.72	1.72	20.69	20.69	-1.01	-1.01
Wyoming	MWC	1.72	1.72	61.29	61.29	0.39	0.39
UNLV	MWC	1.72	1.72	59.38	59.38	0.32	0.32
Southern Miss	CUSA	1.67	1.67	41.38	41.38	-0.29	-0.29
Colorado	P12	1.64	1.64	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.38	0.38	14.29	14.29	-0.27	-0.27
UC Irvine	BW	0.32	0.32	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.29	0.29	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.29	0.29	70.00	70.00	0.12	0.12
UC Riverside	BW	0.29	0.29	24.14	24.14	-0.15	-0.15
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.27	0.27	28.57	28.57	-0.12	-0.12
San Jose St.	MWC	0.26	0.26	10.34	10.34	-0.21	-0.21
Utah Valley	WAC	0.25	0.25	65.52	65.52	0.08	0.08
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.25	0.25	24.14	24.14	-0.13	-0.13
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.24	0.24	80.00	80.00	0.15	0.15
Fresno St.	MWC	0.24	0.24	63.33	63.33	0.06	0.06
Nevada	MWC	0.23	0.23	79.41	79.41	0.14	0.14
Washington	P12	0.23	0.23	62.50	62.50	0.06	0.06
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.22	0.22	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.22	0.22	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Santa Clara	WCC	0.21	0.21	34.48	34.48	-0.07	-0.07
Stanford	P12	0.21	0.21	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.21	0.21	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
BYU	WCC	0.20	0.20	70.59	70.59	0.08	0.08
Cal Poly	BW	0.19	0.19	24.14	24.14	-0.10	-0.10
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.19	0.19	62.07	62.07	0.05	0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.19	0.19	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
San Francisco	WCC	0.18	0.18	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Hawaii	BW	0.16	0.16	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Boise St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	73.33	73.33	0.07	0.07
Air Force	MWC	0.15	0.15	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
New Mexico	MWC	0.15	0.15	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	SB	0.13	0.13	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Colorado St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
San Diego St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Utah	P12	0.13	0.13	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Seattle	WAC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Portland	WCC	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.09	0.09	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.08	0.08	76.67	76.67	0.04	0.04
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
FIU	CUSA	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.02	0.02	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00